CHART OF THE DAY: The Trash Rally
Yi’s blog
Trade as you SEE. Do NOT trade as you think
It’s comes the good time for $FAZ
The news I’ve caught today is “BAC has managed to raise 75% of the capital planed to be raised from private market, more then half of which comes from stock market.” I see this a signal that big buyers starts to retreat from stock market. Now it comes the good time for $FAZ
See also:
In china, “copy cats win battels”, chinese auto makers to test this rule
Rely is a high-end brand from Chery Automobile
Riich G6 is the first luxury car from Rely. Their seems sourced inspiration from Bently’s logo.
Apart from the logo, the G6 has mixes in features from both Lexus LS 600 and Bently’s Continental GT
all crows are black
All crows are black. No matter where they are from.
Here are two good articles I read about the recent US bank stress test and corresponding market reaction.
I firmly believe the authers are telling the truth.
Unfortunately, learning the truth too early, in most cases, is not a good thing.
I’m now paying lose to learn how to dance with wolves.
Let me repeat the motto again “trade as you see, do NOT trade as you think!”
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++ this one: the market is a cruel S.O.B
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/158f174a-3bed-11de-acbc-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
Bump and Run 急涨奔逃反转形态
A bearish scenario would be a “bump-and-run” reversal shown in my amateur diagram below. This occurs when a stock/the market (I’ll use market) releases itself from it’s primary support and simply runs up too far, too fast. It consists of 3 phases: the lead-in, bump, and run. The lead-in is the ‘normal’ trend support that the market has been following. The bump is when the market makes a sharp advance, leaving a ‘pocket of air’ between it and the support. The run is when the market rolls over to revert back to the mean. Before it rolls over, the consolidation looks like a normal pullback. Something to keep in mind.
New Captital Required by Stress Test VS. Bank’s Market Cap
|
Bank |
New captial required in billions | Current market cap | % Capital Shortfall / Market Cap |
| GMAC($GKM $GOM $GMA $GJM) | 11.5 | 1.4 | 821% |
| $RF | 2.5 | 3.63 | 69% |
| $KEY | 1.8 | 3.38 | 53% |
| 33.9 | 86.48 | 39% | |
| $FITB | 1.1 | 3.09 | 36% |
| $STI | 2.2 | 6.61 | 33% |
| $C | 5.5 | 21 | 26% |
| $WFC | 13.7 | 105.51 | 13% |
| $MS | 1.8 | 29.35 | 6% |
| $PNC | 0.6 | 19.79 | 3% |
| Total | 74.6 | 280.24 | 27% |
Troubled banks ranked by their trouble
- GMAC($GKM $GOM $GMA $GJM)
- $RF
- $KEY
——– Above banks need to raise more then 50% of its Mrk Cap ——– - $BAC
- $FITB
- $STI
——– Need 30% + - $C
- $WFC
- $MS
- $PNC
Banks which don’t need more capital are:
理解带有倍率杠杆的指数基金的消退(The decay of leveraged etfs)
带有倍率杠杆的指数基金所具有的消退理论上最终将使该基金的价格收缩为0
拿 $FAS 和 $FAZ 举例。这是一对具有三倍杠杆的对冲的的ETF。这对基金的价格和基准指数Russell 1000 Financial Services Index（RIFIN）保持同步。即在同步的前提下，.RIFIN + 1% -> $FAS +3%, $FAZ –3%
假设 .RIFIN 的值变化为 x， 则 $FAS 和 $FAZ 的对冲结果是 (1+3x)(1-3x) – 1
因此这对ETF当日的消退即为 (1+3x)(1-3x) - (1+x)(1-x) = 8x2 –>
由此可知长期持有倍率ETF是个亏本买卖。同样的在理论上，长期成对做空ETF是绝对获利的。
那么为什么这么人多奔ETF而去呢？
因为在基准指数在单个方向上连续变化的情况下，倍率ETF的产能非常惊人。
假设 .RIFIN 连续上扬两日，切两日都增长 x
那么无倍率的ETF的产能是 (1+x)2-1 = 2x+x2
而在三倍杠杠的情况下 $FAS 的产能是 (1+3x)2-1 = 9x2 + 6x，这比无倍率的ETF的产能的三倍还要多出： 9x2 + 6x – 3*(2x+x2) = 6x2 。 扣除消退 4x2，仍多了 2x2
巴菲特:报业前景黯淡
源： http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTRE5420I820090503
巴菲特认为报业前景堪忧，因为报业缺乏可持久发展的盈利模式